SKU: 44923149033

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

Sale price$15.30 Regular price$17.00
Save 10%

Pay in installments of $4.25 with ShopPay, AfterPay and Klarna

Shipping Estimate
USA
  • USA
  • CAN

Ships within 48 hours · Estimated delivery Aug 2 - Aug 7

Promo Codes Available:

For Your Every Summer RSVP, with Code: SUMMER15

Description

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d

Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
Shipping Notes
  • Free Standard Shipping on $100+ Orders to the USA.
  • Except Preorder products are shipped in 48 hours.
  • Delivery to the USA:
  1. Standard Shipping : 3-10 business days
  • If time is of the essence, please consider selecting expedited delivery for faster service.
Exchange/Return Notes
  • We offer a 30-day return/exchange service after receiving.
  • Final sale items are not eligible for returns or exchanges.
  • To process your return/exchange, please contact us at [email protected]
  • Please click here for more details>>> Return & Exchange Policy
SKU: 44923149033

Discover Niche Categories That Outsell

Top-Converting Item to Boost Your Average Order

4.2 ★★★★★
Based on 28 reviews
Sort
Highest Rating
Newest First
Oldest First
Product Reviews
J
Verified Purchase
Jammie Clark
Pawtucket, US
★★★★★ 4
A good read
Format: Kindle
Multiple points of view. 3 Alpha men and an Omega male. She is a Beta in training for a new program placing betas in Alpha/Omega packs. Mila is only doing the program for the money to take care of her dad. She wasn't expecting to fall for a pack but when she sees this packs Omega she is done for. There is just something about him. His Alphas are good looking as well. Too bad she is hiding a secret and their government is acting shady. I liked it and can't wait to see where their story goes.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on November 14, 2023
B
Verified Purchase
Bri Hires
Birmingham, US
★★★★★ 3
Slightly repetitive but I did love some things
Format: Kindle
I love this type of story. And omegaverse is one of my all time favorite genres. But there are a few things that pulled me out of my enjoyment while I was reading. It was repetitive at times as well as struggled with telling not showing. So we didn’t always feel like we were experiencing things with the main character. There were also some plot holes but they may still be answered in part 2. Now this isn’t to be said I didn’t enjoy parts of the story. I loved the almost instant love between Mila and Oliver. And how he started changing around her.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on February 15, 2024
K
Verified Purchase
Kimberly G
Massapequa, US
★★★★★ 5
delightful read
Format: Kindle
What a delightful read. The characters are awesome, the plot was so good, I loved it. I was intrigued and it kept me wanting more. Told in multiple pov, the book sucks you in and doesn’t let go. I cannot wait to read the next book.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2025
K
Verified Purchase
Kimberly B
Lexington, US
★★★★★ 4
not bad
Format: Kindle
I loved the plot of this book. The characters just didn’t have a lot of depth. The connections and “love” just weren’t communicated very well in the writing. The author didn’t write the sweet psycho trope very well at all either. Lachlan was just a mess of a character.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on November 17, 2023
C
Verified Purchase
Carmen Alicea
Battle Creek, US
★★★★★ 5
A Beta Worth Rooting For
Format: Kindle
In Spare, Violet Fox flips the omegaverse on its head, giving us a Beta heroine determined to make her mark. Joining the Beta Trials to support her sick father, she's thrown into a pack that doesn't want her, especially the possessive Alphas. But here's the twist: their sweet Omega turns out to be her scent match. Cue the angst, forbidden tension, and a slow-burn romance that will make your heart ache in the best way. Violet Fox delivers an emotional, refreshing take on the genre, proving Betas aren't "spares." They're stars.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on January 10, 2025

recommand products