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Суперпрогнозування. Мистецтво та наука передбачення. Super Forecasting. The Art And Science Of Prediction. . Super Forecasting. The Art And Science Of Prediction New York Times Washington Post. , . , , . . , , . , . . ? , , . , , , , , , . , , . , Amnesty International Media Award. ' ' ' '. Wall Street Journal' , '. , '. '' , . , , . , , '. Economist SPECIFICATIONS: Author: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner , Publisher: Language: Ukrainian Publication Date: 2018 Number of pages: 368 pst Format: Hardcover Width: 140 mm 5,5' Height: 210 mm 8,3' Weight: 400 g
Суперпрогнозування. Мистецтво та наука передбачення. Super Forecasting. The Art And Science Of Prediction
Бестселер New York Times і Washington Post. Дієва формула, як робити достовірні прогнози у будь-якій сфері від політики та бізнесу до сімейного життя.
ТематикаПрогнозування, аналіз, теорія прийняття рішень.Про книжкуЗавдяки вмінню прогнозувати події можна уникнути помилок і досягти успіху в усіх сферах нашого життя. Однак мало кому до снаги передбачити, у що варто вкладати кошти, який новий продукт здатен завоювати ринок і яких змін чекати на політичній арені. Навіть провідні експерти часто радше здогадуються про певні речі, ніж аналізують можливості їхньої появи. Утім деякі фахівці здатні робити достовірні передбачення. Як їм це вдається і чи можна цього навчитися?Для кого книжкаКнижка для всіх, хто цікавиться прогнозуванням, методиками вирішення проблем та теоріями прийняття рішень.Чому ця книжкаТетлок і Ґарднер зібрали низку прогнозів, які справдилися, хоч більшість вважала їх хибними, і на основі цих даних створили дієву формулу успішних передбачень, яка працює в бізнесі, політиці, міжнародних відносинах і навіть в особистому житті.Про авторів- Філіп Тетлок — канадсько-американський письменник, політолог, викладач Пенсильванського університету.
- Ден Ґарднер — журналіст, лауреат Amnesty International Media Award.
SPECIFICATIONS:
Author:Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner - Філіп Тетлок, Ден Гарднер
Publisher:Наш Формат
Language:Ukrainian/Українська
Publication Date:2018
Number of pages:368 pst
Format:Hardcover
Width:140 mm / 5,5'
Height:210 mm / 8,3'
Weight:400 g
ISBN:9786177388820
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4.5 ★★★★★
Based on 16 reviews
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Product Reviews
★★★★★ 5
Great product
Color: #2 ROSE
Smells great love how it feels on my skin.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on October 19, 2025
★★★★★ 1
Not what I expected
Color: #2 ROSE
Didn't care for this. In fact I returned it. No glimmer at all. Just oil! Disappointed
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on April 3, 2026
★★★★★ 5
Body Luminizer Body Shimmer Oil with Makeup Brush (Glistening Bronze,40 ml) By AOAZXBB
Color: Glistening Bronze
I ordered the Body Luminizer Body Shimmer Oil with Makeup Brush (Glistening Bronze,40 ml) By AOAZXBB. The kit came in a zip top baggie. I received a makeup sponge, a brush and a boxed bottle of Luminizer. There were no tamper proofing precautions. The luminizer is in a glass bottle with a pump dispenser top. The luminizer is a sparkly, thick brown liquid. The product spreads easily (I used my finger for the test) and then I used the brush to finish the supplication. There is a slight bronzing color effect after application and so, so many sparkles. This looks fantastic in the sun. After a few minutes the luminizer felt dry so I used a white towel to check for rub transfer. I rubbed moderately hard over one area where I had applied the luninizer and there was a small amount of product transfer. I would not wear this against very light colored clothing and will stick to medium or darkish colors. There is a spicy masculine scent to the product. I really like the scent. There is an expiration date of 5/27 listed on the box which at more than two years away should be ample time to use the product.
At less than $8 for this kit, it is an economical way to add a little bronzing and sparkle to my spring and summer!
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Reviewed in the United States on March 27, 2025
★★★★★ 4
Glow sun protection body oil
Color: #2 ROSE
I am cautious about sun protection whether it be on my face or body and this body glow oil is a fun way to apply it with a special touch. Rather than traditional sunscreens, this oil is perfect for the beach or poolside and gives you that great appearance with a flattering look. I would say that the "glow" comes less from the glitter particles and more from the actual oil itself. I'm also not sure if I saw the rose gold effect but it certainly did have a nice glowy look overall. There was a tropical scent of coconut which gave major beachy vibes as well. I was a little worried that it would feel sticky but was pleasantly relieved that it just felt moisturizing and sank into my skin as much as an oil can. Importantly, having the SPF45 PA+++ keeps your skin protected while looking great. I would recommend this!
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Reviewed in the United States on June 20, 2025
★★★★★ 5
Good dupe !
Color: Glistening Bronze
Surprisingly very good! The shimmer last and the glow appears on the skin. Compared to makeup store ones for 10x the price this one works so much better!
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Reviewed in the United States on May 21, 2026