SKU: 85819589285

The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck

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The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And LuckThe Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck Probably the UKs greatest living statistician Telegraph From the UKs statistical national treasure, a clever and data driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we dont know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career

The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck

‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph

From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.

In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

'National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of the unknown' - The Times

'Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal' - Economist

'One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer… A useful and persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty' - Financial Times

'Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academia’s best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation' - Observer

SPECIFICATIONS:

Author:David Spiegelhalter - Дэвид Шпигельхальтер

Publisher:Penguin

Language:English

Publication Date:2024

Number of pages:512 pst

Format:Hardcover

Width:193 mm / 7,6'

Height:224 mm / 8,8'

Weight:611 g

ISBN:9780241658628

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SKU: 85819589285

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Kaycee
Whiting, US
★★★★★ 4
Not as sturdy as a regular one
Size: Mini
I was holding off writing a review about this because I wasn’t sure that it was going to hold up as well as a regular non bendable Chuck It wand. I have found I like the way it folds up and fits into my backpack nicely and also fits into my big purse when I’m out and about with my dog. You have to make sure the orange sleeve is over the screw part in the middle of the wand before you can throw the ball otherwise it’s not going to throw. It’s going to collapse. I’m not sure how long the durability is going to last that’s my only question about this product and I don’t know how long the screws on the elbow of it are gonna hold up but for now it’s been working great and we play with it every day and I’ve not had a problem with it. It’s just not as sturdy as a full size wand
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on September 13, 2024
D
Verified Purchase
Dana S Kroeger
Belleville, US
★★★★★ 5
Love this version of Chuck It beyond all before
Size: Mini
I had the longer bendable Chuck It before, well several, which broke down. They finally wouldn’t’ release the ball. Not disparaging Chuck It. They have been my furry puppy's favorite thing ever. I am grateful. But what I like and think is intuitive about this smaller design is 2 things: 1. I can do a more dynamic throw. 2. There are circle holes in the Chuck It Ball that come with it that I think allow for easier release and the ball can go father. Just my two cents.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on January 8, 2026
T
Verified Purchase
Tish
Louisville, US
★★★★★ 3
Still Good to Use in a Pinch
Size: Mini
Love the Chuck it brand. This collapsible one is not my favorite. Everytime I chuck it, the orange lock does not stay in place. Plus, in my opinion, it doesn't have the oomph for the distance like the other medium ones. Still good though
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on January 28, 2026
W
Verified Purchase
wild animals
Draper, US
★★★★★ 5
Best toy, the end
Style: Sport, Size: 12in, Style: Sport, Size: 12in
Combined with the Max Glow ball, this is the best dog toy available on modern planet Earth. I have a burly 92lb. pit bull mix with highly developed prey drive, and she will chase the glow ball for hours if I let her. The tiny sport launcher (Sport 12M) is the best, because you can still throw the ball really far, but you can also slam the ball down a few feet away from yourself so it bounces up in the air and your dog has to jump to catch it, or you can throw it up really high so it bounces 15' away or so and your dog can jump to catch it. We sometimes have to play fetch in a pretty small area, so it's nice to have the small launcher for these games. The larger launchers aren't as fun in small areas. You can play the same games but it's trickier to throw the ball correctly. Also, the small launcher is a lot easier to carry. The small launcher fits in my dog-walk-stuff backpack (with the ball in the launcher so I don't have to dig for it later), but the big ones don't easily. The launcher also has a hole in the end so you can hang it from your bag or whatever with a carabiner. The big ones are too long for that in most cases, and swing back and forth. Also-also my dog loves to ask for the launcher, then when I give it to her she plays keep-away and it's adorable. The big launcher I have is harder for her to balance in her mouth, so she just lays down and chews on it until it gets taken away. She's chewed on all of the four Chuck Its we've owned, but she's only broken one (a big one), but that's because she got ahold of it when no one was home. The little one in my bag is totally chewed up but still works great. I think they're sturdier than the big ones. Except for the launcher she chewed into pieces, which was our fault, the only reason we've had to replace anything was because we lost it. Usually we keep the launcher and ball in the backpack so she can't get to them and so they don't get lost, so we rarely have to replace them. There is just not a better value in toys, and the startup price is really low. Once again I really recommend the glow ball! It doesn't get soggy no matter how wet the grass or the dog mouth is. It is fun to chase because it is slippery and it collapses when it's squeezed, so it pops out of the dog's mouth and flies away if they bite it at the wrong angle; it's really bouncy, and stays bouncy because it can't be popped; it whistles so you can usually hear it even if you can't see it; and it really glows enough for nighttime catch, even if you only have your cellphone flashlight to charge it up! UPDATE: I should have said, we have the 12M launcher, which means the handle is 12 inches long and it uses a medium-sized ball. The medium ball is 2.5 inches in diameter, so the launcher will fit regular tennis balls, too! But my dog won't play with regular tennis balls anymore because they aren't anywhere near as fun as the glow balls, and I think she doesn't like having gross sloshy muddy tennis balls in her mouth. I lost my short launcher awhile back and could only get a long one locally to replace it, which reminded me that you have to lean over a lot further to use the short launcher. So if you have trouble leaning over to the point that your hand is a foot above the ground, this may be hard for you to use. I wish Amazon would let us choose colors, because my old one was green, and the big one is orange, both of which are bright enough to see in the grass from far away, even at night. Still, best toy!
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Reviewed in the United States on May 19, 2017
A
Verified Purchase
Amazon Fan
Boise, US
★★★★★ 5
Highly recommend.
Style: Sport, Size: 12in
Love this. Dog sitting for a dog that loves to chase balls but my shoulder doesn’t like throwing them. Got this yesterday and it’s perfect. Real arm/shoulder saver. Seems sturdy and I was concerned that a standard tennis ball would not work. We tend to lose balls when walking because this lab insists on carrying the ball in its mouth. They work.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on March 22, 2026

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